The beauty of human logic

A couple of weeks ago, my Macbook hard drive crash (the second in two years). The previous 20+ years and numerous computers never had an issue. Like they said in the investment ads, past performance is no indicator or guarantee of future performance.

Another colleague in the office had a hard disk crash this week. Searching in the forums for the best RAID strategy. For the small business owner, it's not the RAID with striping or fancy over the network. All he really needed was a disk controller with RAID and mirror a drive. Cost would have been $200. He is still down after 3 days trying to get his backup from his off-site backup.

The forums are full of comments like, "I don't think you need to mirror or backup your hard disk because I've been running Windows Vista for 8 months and nothing has happened". Yes, disk drives have very large MTBFs (mean time between failures), but like flying an airplane, disasters don't happen often but when it happens, it is catastrophic.

I'm not sure why we have this logic built in, but it pervades out thinking, whether it is buying insurance, investing in stock markets or backing up our data. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

We simply don't know how to assess risk. Which one is worse? the fact that your book falls off the table once a day and you have to pick it up or the fact that you have Ming Vase put high up on a cupboard and you live in San Francisco. You can live with the knowledge your book may look worse for wear over a year but you are less likely to survive your expensive Ming Vase falling down due to earth tremor in 5 years time. We are also more likely to fix the table or put the book somewhere else because it annoys us than insure that Ming Vase because it has never fallen over in the last 10 years.

The beauty of human logic.

Is this the beginning of the end?

On Monday, I put in a 16 hour day to get some final touches to a client project as well as deal with a last minute request to add an extra feature to the application. Going to bed at 2:30am in the morning is generally no big deal except that I usually get up by 7am to get the kids ready for school. No big deal I thought until yesterday morning.

I arrived at work, ran up the stairs, unlocked the door and stepped in. I stared at the alarm pad with a total blank mind. As the beeping continued, I realized I had no clue what the password was, something I entered twice a day for the last four years. Not even the starting digit came to mind.

First dumb thing to do. Start punching a couple of combinations. Then realized it was stupid because I'm not about to guess the password in the next 10 seconds.

Panic mode sets in as I fumble looking for my phone to call my colleague. Of course, it was the morning I changed coats so after hunting in 4 different pockets, I found the phone.

By now, the alarm had gone off, I felt like a burglar. Called my colleague, then realized that he wouldn't be able to hear me with the siren blaring next to me.

Opened the door and ran down the stairs. The first thought was, 'I hope no-one was going to shoot me because, to anyone else, it looked like I was fleeing the scene of the crime. Got the password, ran back upstairs and after a few miscues, type the code in. Silence is golden.

Next 15 minutes was spent sitting in my chair anticipating a rush of police in response to the alarm. My colleague luckily called security to let them know it was a false alarm.

I learned two things from this experience.
a) I'm not cut out to be a criminal
b) I'm not as young as I thought I was. I'm sure I'll have a few more senior moments in the months to come.

Burning the midnight oil should be left for the young. The only thing I'm wondering is how many brain cells I killed in the process.

Is this the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?

Our time has come

A good friend passed on an article about The Gentle Leader. The article talks about the contrary leader, the one who cares about people more than profits, who builds communities rather than empires, who inspires others to exceed and succeed him. The author believes that the corporate wolves have shown to be greedy, selfish, responsible for state of the economy today. The time has come for the gentle leader.

I would like to believe that. Except my corporate scars remind me who holds the purse strings and signs the checks. It is one of the reasons why I decided 4 years ago to walk my own path with my good friend Tony. The road less travelled has not been without its share of hardship but I can wake up and believe I'm making decisions for all the right reasons.

I am pragmatic. In larger companies, it is about the bottom line, shareholder value, profits, beating out the competition. Without any those, there is no business, and without business, there are no employees, the people I would care about and serve.

But there should be a better way, a compromise at worst where the gentle leaders are allowed to nurture, inspire and build communities because success is built by people and not defined by the products which do not exist without the people.

We should lead our teams the same way we nurture our children. By giving them opportunities to grow, make mistakes, guide and mentor. So that one day, they may become even greater than we are. For what better legacy to leave behind than the knowledge that we have enabled others to accomplish a thousand-fold more than we could ever do by ourselves.

iPad, a tablet for all seasons

Being iPhone app developers, we looked forward to Apple's iPad announcement with great anticipation. Secretly, I hoped it would be a scaled down Mac instead of the oversized iPhone/iPod. Running the standard iPhone OS, it is not multi-tasking and the walled garden surrounding apps is still there. However, I would think with subsequent releases, this will change. With a 1GHz custom chip with loads more computing capability, why would you want an iPod or iPhone on steroids?

But it makes a lot of sense as a first release, Macs have never been the PC killer and the number of iPods / iPhones sold is staggering so why not make sure the iPad can access the 140,000+ apps out there.

The opinion around me is pretty interesting. My good friend Tony raved about it. Why? he has a Sony Reader and given that the launch price is just a little more than a Kindle, Amazon should be afraid, be very afraid. For less than $100 more, you get a sexy device that is color, has browsing capabilities, access to iTunes, AppStore and iBook. Of course, if you're a hard-core reader, you'll realize that the Kindle is better for reading outdoors and has a much longer battery life due to it's eInk technology. But humans are swayed by shimmering, colorful things and I'm sure many potential eBook reader buyers will be swayed towards Apple.

It is also a great entry level for the non-technical folk. People who have never been comfortable near computers. Now they have a personal device they can hug and hold like a book. The keyboard dock or better still, the ability to use a bluetooth keyboard is a stroke of genius. I would buy the iPad before a PC for my parents.

My son who is in the market for a netbook was disappointed. I would be too in his position. While the iPad will have iWorks, it isn't clear whether this device will be a good substitute for a netbook which is only limited by its processing power and format but in every way a full-fledged PC. No multitasking and the omission of a camera for internet chatting are serious omissions. But it is first generation so some things must wait and hopefully available later.

Nevertheless, I'm sure we'll get a couple of them in the office if only to see how we can leverage the larger format. I'm intrigued by the format. I've often felt the iPhone was great if only it was bigger.

Perhaps now is the time to ditch the iPhone, buy a very small Nokia phone or Blackberry and get the iPad. But as my son pointed out, I'd be carry 3 devices, a phone, a tablet and a Mac around with me.

For many who are die hard Blackberry users, it is an interesting device that means they don't have to give up their phone or their PC. Now even Bill can buy one without feeling guilty about ditching his Windows 7.

99c apps are not 99c songs

Somehow, somewhere down the line, we were hoodwinked into thinking 99c was the ultimate price for everything. Apple got us so used to buying songs for 99c they figured it was just a natural progression to buy apps for 99c. Given the amount of apps that have been sold, they were correct. Today over 53% of all 138,000 apps in the iTunes Appstore cost 99c. In fact only 77 of them cost more than $100.

It was a great marketing move but perhaps not so great for the small developers. The problem with 99c is that to make money you need volume. If you knew how steep the long tail curve is in the AppStore, you'll realize that the percentage of people actually making a decent living from iPhone apps is in the single digits. Given there are probably 30,000 or more developers out there, starving is the word of the day.

What continues to baffle me is to see high quality apps next to some pretty crappy ones for exactly the same price... 99c. Having developed around 29 of our apps, we know what it takes to write a good one, the effort is in the weeks if not months.

Here's why 99c apps are not 99c songs. Songs, (especially the popular artists) have the backing of some pretty large music companies who have invested thousands into each artist. The studio time, producers, promoters etc. They generally have well-oiled and well-funded marketing machines that put the faces of their artists in supermarkets, TV. There are established distribution channels, i.e. radio stations that play the songs over and over again until you end up buying. The appstore has none of these advantages unless you're an EA or already have a large brand and online/offline presence. i.e. if you're a standalone developer, the future looks bleak, better buy a lottery ticket.

At the end of the day, there are some pretty good apps languishing at the bottom of the pile. You spend months working on your masterpiece only to get swamped by 60+ apps on the same day you launched. Talk about drowning in noise. To say the good will float to the top is not correct, that is only true if there is steady state and the cream is given a chance to rise. Keep stirring the pot vigorously, nothing rises but just a whole lot of churning.

Even in the music world, only a handful of artists get valuable airtime and make a whole bunch of money. The rest are hopefuls and has-beens.

The key is not to try and create apps that sell a million, that's a nice to have. But to create apps that address a niche, a demographic who are passionate about a topic like you are and are prepared to pay 4.99 or 9.99. That is the business.

At the end of the day 99c apps are not 99c songs. Right now the appstore is akin to every American Idol hopeful, recording a song on their iPhone and posting it to iTunes for 99c. (The recent auditions in Chicago yielded 13 finalists from 12,000). If they don't let that happen on iTunes, why should it happen in the Appstore?

Great apps are not great on day one (or why there are more and more bad apps in the AppStore)

It's pretty common knowledge that unless you have deep pockets and high risk tolerance, it's really hard to market iPhone apps. If you follow the forums, advertising in traditional web channels are not that successful unless you doing it with a brand which generally means big bucks.

So the best way is to be mentioned by well known websites like New York Times, MacWorld or a raving blog celebrity. Given there are over 126,000 apps, that is like winning the lottery at best.

The reason why advertising on the web is tough is the context. Most people get their apps when they are actually on the iPhone, e.g. waiting for the bus, or having some time to kill. The first thing they do is look at the Top 25, What's Hot and New. Which means unless you're in the first 50, forget about mindshare.

In the past, updating your app meant you were actually put into the new list along with other brand new apps ensuring that at least for a day or two depending on your category, your app would potentially be seen by millions.

Now this may seem like people would be gaming the system by adding features just to get to the New list and we all did. But it wasn't a bad thing because given the 2-3 week cycle to approve apps in the past, no-one could really abuse the system. The most you could update your app was generally once a month.

There were no losers because developers were motivated to add more to the apps and users would get the benefit since all upgrades to apps are free. So for the community, it meant over time, the good apps really got better. Of course, if your app did really badly, you didn't care to update it anyway and it would sink to the bottom through natural attrition.

Late last year, that all changed. Only brand new apps made it to the new list and the updated apps were no where to be seen. I'm assuming that as the number of apps increased in the store, the number of updating apps exceeded the new apps, a problem that only gets worse as the total number of apps increases. So Apple stopped 'promoting' updated apps.

So what did that mean for developers with existing apps. Having lost one of the most important marketing channels, I believe a large number of them will stop updating their apps on a regular basis preferring to submit new ones. Worst still, since there is no rule about submitting similar apps, I believe many will and did basically reskin the same app and submit under a different name.

As a small developer, my choice when waking up in the morning is a) work on an existing app, b) work on a new app which will at least be seen by millions for a few days, c) change my existing app with a few new features and submit as a new app to get on the new list, d) make existing users pay for upgrades which is non-trivial requiring the developer to keep track of users and add a registration process.

So what's the upshot? The good apps don't get better or deeper in functionality. There will be a lot of similar apps that all do the same thing with very little depth. The number of apps increases dramatically increasing Apple's cost of maintaining the Appstore.

What's the quick fix? I agree that having updating apps swamp the New list is not desirable. But there should be another list, a Recently Updated list which does showcase updated apps. I'm sure it is a great way to resurrect tired apps, get developers a motivation to create really deep and useful apps and benefits the users because apps aren't generally great on day 1.

Here's the kicker. Great apps are generally not great on day one. Unless you're well-funded, the strategy most developers take is the spaghetti one. Throw something against the wall and see what sticks. If it sticks, make it better.

I would argue the best apps in the appstore are those that have been around at least 6 months and been updated 4-5 times. You can be sure many of the early bugs are fixed and a host of good features gleaned from user feedback are in there.

Email Signature Pro is a good case in point, it has grown with every update and 90% of the features added subsequent to the first release are from customer feedback. It meets the needs of our users because we listened. The only suggestions we didn't do were those that were not currently possible on the iPhone platform.

We have 28 other iPhones, many of them are free. Why would we spend a week updating a free app when there is very little marketing return. Unless it is a highly popular, there is no incentive.

We love the iPhone and the AppStore. But love doesn't pay the rent.

Unscrambling the egg

I can't believe I haven't blogged this year. It has been crazy. There's definitely a new sense of optimism in the city and with our clients. Feels like everyone woke up on 1 Jan and realized they are a year behind. In just two weeks, we've hit some great milestones in our consulting work, found some long lost friends and made a couple of new ones. Not to mention some new opportunities on the horizon.

But that has nothing to with unscrambling the egg. The title probably should have been something like "Software development is a non-linear activity". But that would be boring.

I read a book about magicians a long time ago. Every year, they would gather for a contest to see who had the neatest trick. One particular one did the most simple thing, he scrambled an egg and proceed to unscramble it, drawing gasps of amazement from his peers.

The story has always stuck with me. Unscrambling the egg is the holy grail. Whoever can figure it out will unlock the secrets of the universe.

I digress once again. Looking back at the last few months, it is interesting to see even with years of software development experience we still get it wrong when it comes to estimation. Most of the time, we get it right to within days. Usually the pragmatic estimate is the average guess of Tony and myself. He tends to be more conservative and me, well let's just say I've often said "how hard can it be?".

But there is always that one feature that looks like an iceberg. Looks pretty simple but in reality as you get close you realize 90% of the work lies hidden. Which leads to the maxim, if you going in at a fix price, charge as much as the client will bear otherwise, your effective earnings will be one sixth of what you thought it will be. A better way is build a relationship with your client and bill on a hourly basis with an estimate of the final outcome. That way, you don't end up cutting corners to save time and the client pays a fair price. End of the day it is a win-win, you get to earn a fair wage and the client gets a quality product. The thing I learnt over the years, is to be open with the client and share the issues. You'll be amazed that they are actually quite understanding if they feel like they are part of the problem. What they don't like is surprises, especially nasty ones.

But software development is sometimes like scrambling and unscrambling an egg. The 80/20 rule is often more like 90/10. You get 90% of the feature in 10% of the time and then hit the wall. This is when you're unscrambling the egg, i.e. it takes a lot lochrome://intouchlink/content/buttons/itl-second-home.pngnger, and sometimes not possible. That last 10% could be a simple change to the way the user interface works or restoring a saved state in a multi-input wizard.

I remember the time a team of 40 developers stood around for a couple days while one developer had to fix a particulachrome://intouchlink/content/buttons/itl-second-home.pngr nasty Windows related bug. The problem is it is not linear and proportional to the time you took to do the first 90%. The last mile is often the killer. Ask any marathon runner...

So next time you hit a wall in whatever you do, remember how easy it was to unscramble an egg but it is difficult if not impossible to unscramble one.

A belated Happy New Year!

One minute to midnight

New Year for many means a new start, closing an old chapter, a time for resolutions, a festive point of the year. For me, it has always been anti-climatic. Perhaps, it is because no matter how hard we wish or hope, hardship in December tends to follow its course in January. Resolutions are quickly broken. Winter is a little harsher and the reality of January sets in. Whatever was tough on 31 December, didn't magically disappear on January 1 or 2 or 3 for that matter. Humbug.

Until last year.

An opportunity save a tiny life changed all that. A gift to both the boy and me. Looking back exactly one year later, it is one of those moments where 30 seconds either way would have surely meant he would not see a day in 2009 and for me, it meant each New Year would continue to be a humbug event. I still shiver every time think of that defining moment.

New Year's eve will never be the same again. It has become a reminder to me to be grateful and humble. Yes, we are indeed the masters of our destiny and yet our ship is dependent on the favorable winds of fortune.

I still strive for success, financial security, worldly goals and other aspirations. But I am now reminded more so on this day, that the most worthy thing I can ever do is how I can save or change a life.

Each day dawns and presses upon me the stresses of the day. I forget the best questions I should ask before I rise from my bed.

• Whose life can I make a little easier today?
  
• What kind words can I convey that will sooth a soul?
  
• Which words of encouragement can inspire actions that exceed expectations?
  
• What gesture will strengthen a relationship?
  
• Which burden can I lessen by lending a patient ear?
  

In the hustle and bustle, I forget that,

• Smiling is irresistible
  
• The best gift is a hug
  
• A kiss is never given in vain
  
• Find good in others is the prelude to praise
  
• To be grateful for small mercies
  
• True giving has no reservations
  

Today, I am reminded of these things. Every minute of our lives should be lived as if it is one minute to midnight. We cannot choose our destiny, but we can choose the legacy we leave behind.

Tomorrow we can say Happy New Year! Should we not wake up each morning and declare Happy New Day!

• If you had one breath left, what would you say?
  
• If you could gaze on one last thing, what would it be?
  
• If you could receive one last kiss, who would it be?
  

If you had only one minute to midnight, how would you live?

Making people take the stairs

How do you get people to take the stairs instead of the elevator? How do you encourage people to throw their trash in the bin instead of the floor? It turns out if you can't pay people to do it, at least make it fun.

The Fun Theory initiative by Volkswagen did just that. It's a competition to encourage people to come up with ideas of how to make things mundane, well, just more fun. Some of the ideas are indeed wonderful, like making stairs look and sound like piano keys making it fun to use them instead of the elevator next door.

Parents understand this concept very well. It's easier to make a chore into a game than simply make their kids do it. Of course the caveat is once the novelty has worn off you have to find new ways to keep them engaged.

But it did make me think why most managers are not trained to think this way. When I ran software teams, there was only one objective to be a successful leader (note, I used the word lead and not manage on purpose). The objective to create situations where the team could and would initiate the tasks themselves because of the following reasons:

• Passion - the overwhelming desire to want to do something because of a force within
  
• Creativity - the result of a challenge that is often extremely difficult or seemingly impossible
  
• Fun - the sense of achievement and the execution of the task that makes you smile no matter how tough it may be
  

Of course to do so, you have to empower and part of it means making sure they understood and were aligned with your intent. The primary reason we hate letting go? they may do something contrary to our intent. If they are aligned, you can be sure they often come up with even better solutions than you could think of on your own.

My job then? was to Inspire, Initiate and Imagine...

Their job then? was the same to Inspire, Initiate and Imagine...

It's takes a lot of guts for a master to become the apprentice but if you reach that point, you have either lost your job to your protege or made your company infinitely more powerful.

Looking out the window

This is my first official break from work this year. I'm staring out the window onto the slopes of Mont-Saint-Anne, one of the most beautiful mountains in Quebec. Not having touched the keyboard for 3 days is definitely a foreign experience, confirms my condition as a workaholic.

I have noticed how times have changed. Just a few years ago, arriving at a hotel, the first thing the kids would check was if they had a television in the room. This time, the first question was do they have Internet access. I resisted for 2 days amidst protests, you would have thought we were putting them on bread and water.

Today they are out tubing at Valcatier while I catch up on email, checking out iTunes accounts etc. It also means I get to catch up on my blogging that has fallen the wayside. Not that I didn't want to. I had a ton of thoughts but there never seem a good time to quietly put them down concretely. You may say I'm too much of a perfectionist to be a good Twitterer. Saying something flippant and off the cuff is not my style unless it is a bad joke to annoy my kids.

Skiing, even as badly as I do, is an amazing pastime when you get to do it on a large mountain. For an hour (because I'm particularly slow), you get to see the world seemingly frozen in time. The snow damps all noise and if you happen to stop at a spot all by yourself, the silence is pretty amazing. For that moment you can imagine what it would be like to be the last living thing on earth.

The slopes are relatively empty this year as are most restaurants. I hope for the sake of the locals it is because we are a little earlier this time, getting here before the peak season. Perhaps it is a sign of the economy being tougher than we all care to admit.

Happy Holidays!